Mexico and the United States concluded the first formal round of negotiations under the Joint Review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), held on May 28–29, 2026, in Mexico City.
The process is shaping up as a medium-term bilateral exercise, with no prospect of conclusion by July 1, and with significant implications for the industrial, agricultural, and advanced manufacturing sectors of the region.
The round was conducted with the objective of strengthening North American competitiveness, addressing priority matters for the regional economy, including rules of origin applicable to the automotive, steel, and aluminum sectors, as well as regional economic security.
Mexico noted that the strength of the Agreement lies in the integration of its value chains and in the rules that have established North America as a competitive manufacturing platform.
May 28–29
Jun 16–17
Jul 20
Automotive industry
Mexico is promoting a systemic approach that takes into account both the tariff regime and the current rules of origin, recognizing the regional integration of value chains and the sector’s importance as a driver of investment, employment, and exports. The sector also faces external pressures unrelated to the USMCA that are part of the analysis.
Steel and aluminum
Steel and aluminum are among the priority issues of the review, with direct implications for sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and auto parts. Mexico has proposed the elimination of the 50% tariff currently in force, on the grounds that it is inconsistent with the rates applied to third-party competitors such as the European Union and the Republic of Korea.
Applicable Tariff Treatment
As of this date, the review process does not contemplate a general exemption from the tariffs applicable to goods covered by the Agreement. Accordingly, imports must continue to be assessed in accordance with the applicable tariff treatment, the corresponding rules of origin, and the specific conditions of each transaction.
Regional Economic Security
Economic security is emerging as one of the cross-cutting themes of the review, with potential bearing on discussions concerning supply chain resilience, dependence on inputs sourced from third countries, and the strengthening of regional production in strategic sectors.
Agriculture and Fair Competition Conditions
These matters will be incorporated into the second round, scheduled for June 16–17 in Washington, D.C., confirming that the review will encompass not only industrial sectors but also conditions of market access, competition, and trade balance in areas of sensitivity to both economies.
No agreement expected by July 1
The confirmation of a second round in June and a third round during the week of July 20 indicates that the process will extend beyond its initial stage. No immediate resolution is anticipated with respect to all matters under review.
Certainty for Investment and Supply Chains
Mexico and the United States have identified as a priority the generation of certainty for investment and the preservation of employment linked to the export sector. Nevertheless, stakeholders should monitor potential adjustments to rules of origin, regional content requirements, and measures associated with economic security.
Annual review cycle anticipated (Art. 34.7)
Should any of the Parties fail to confirm the extension of the Agreement prior to July 1, Article 34.7 automatically triggers an annual review mechanism remaining in effect through 2036. Given the current state of negotiations, this is the most probable outcome.
For the private sector, this framework is preferable to a termination of the Agreement; however, it entails a prolonged period of uncertainty that must be taken into account in investment decisions and supply chain planning.
Bilateral process: Canada absent
To date, all meetings have been held on a bilateral basis between Mexico and the United States. Canada has not participated in any of the rounds, which could result in differentiated outcomes and a practical reconfiguration of the trilateral treaty.
Potential Implications for Third Countries
The rounds held to date have been bilateral in nature between Mexico and the United States; Canada has not participated in any of them. Given that any formal modification to the USMCA requires the consent of all three Parties, Canada's absence could result in differentiated agreements or a de facto reconfiguration of the treaty. The evolution of Canada's position will determine the effective scope of what may be agreed upon at this stage.
The outcomes of the USMCA Joint Review give rise to specific obligations and risks for foreign trade operators, including potential adjustments to rules of origin, regional content requirements, and measures related to economic security. Accordingly, importers, exporters, and other operators should assess the impact of these developments on their supply chains, sourcing strategies, and contractual arrangements.
At Mijares, we assist our clients in identifying the specific effects of the USMCA Joint Review on their foreign trade operations and in designing compliance strategies aligned with the evolving regulatory and commercial environment
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